CCS Play Fairway Analysis

Find the reservoir.
Prove the seal.
Quantify the capacity. CO₂ storage site suitability mapping · systematic, auditable, defensible

A commercial-grade desktop application for geoscientists evaluating CO sequestration sites. Score heterogeneous evidence — well logs, seismic horizons, fault maps, caprock mineralogy, formation pressure — into a common [0, 1] suitability scale and combine into a composite storage favorability surface with quantified uncertainty and full audit trail.

0 m 500 m 1000 m 1500 m 2000 m INJECTION WELL MONITORING WELL OVERBURDEN CAPROCK / PRIMARY SEAL STORAGE FORMATION saline aquifer · depleted reservoir CO₂ PLUME FAULT (containment risk) PRECAMBRIAN BASEMENT
fig. 01 · schematic CCS storage site v · e: 2×
81
Lithology entries
CO₂ storage · seal · reactivity
64
Structural domain classes
containment · injection safety
46
Hydrogeological units
injectivity · caprock · pressure
10ctx
CCS scoring contexts
across three attribute libraries
01 The Framework

A viable COâ‚‚ storage site requires three independent confirmations.

Unlike petroleum exploration — which asks "did nature accumulate hydrocarbons?" — CCS asks the engineering-inverse: can we deliberately place a buoyant fluid underground and guarantee it stays there for millennia? This reversal changes which elements matter. Trap geometry still matters — but the penalty for failure is not a dry hole; it is an atmospheric emission liability. The PFA application decomposes CCS suitability into three independent risk surfaces and combines them into a composite storage favorability map.

INJECTIVITY CONTAINMENT CAPACITY VIABLE STORAGE SITE ∩ I ∩ C ∩ V

The penalty for containment failure is asymmetric.

In petroleum PFA, a false positive is a dry hole — an economic loss, not a regulatory one. In CCS, a false positive on containment is a CO₂ leakage event that invalidates the carbon credits, triggers remediation, and potentially damages freshwater aquifers. The scoring framework must reflect this asymmetry: containment elements carry non-negotiable minimum thresholds that no amount of injectivity or capacity can compensate for.

Confidence surfaces are computed independently for each element via kernel density estimation with Sheather–Jones bandwidth. Well-characterized formations show high confidence; frontier saline aquifers with sparse well control show low. The composite output carries both favorability and confidence — regulators see exactly where data supports the interpretation and where it does not.

Element · I
Injectivity
permeability · pressure margin · wellbore access

Can CO₂ be injected at commercial rate (≥ 1 Mt/yr per well) without fracturing the caprock? The system scores formation permeability, pressure differential from hydrostatic, and the co2_injectivity_class from the Hydrogeology Library. Drill-stem test data and core permeability provide direct evidence; lithology polygons scored via co2_storage_class provide indirect proxy.

  • Core / DST permeabilitypoints · wells
  • Formation pressure (MDT/RFT)points · interp.
  • Lithology (co2_storage_class)polygon lookup
  • Hydrogeology (co2_injectivity)polygon lookup
  • Porosity from logspoints · kriging
✕ ✕ ✕
Element · II
Containment
seal integrity · fault seal · wellbore integrity

Will CO₂ remain permanently sequestered over millennia? This is the non-negotiable element. The system evaluates caprock thickness and mineralogy via co2_seal_class, structural integrity via containment_integrity_class, and the density of legacy well penetrations that breach the seal horizon — each abandoned wellbore is a potential leakage pathway.

  • Caprock thickness (isopach)raster · seismic
  • Caprock lithology (co2_seal)polygon lookup
  • Structural integritypolygon lookup
  • Fault seal risklines · proximity
  • Legacy well penetrationspoints · KDE
Mt COâ‚‚
Element · III
Capacity
pore volume · mineral trapping · pressure budget

Is there sufficient accessible pore volume for the project's injection target? The system computes effective storage capacity from formation thickness × porosity × area × efficiency factor. Long-term security is assessed via co2_reactivity_class (mineral trapping potential) and pressure_management_class from the Hydrogeology Library — formations that dissipate pressure buildup score higher.

  • Formation thickness (isopach)raster · seismic
  • Porosity (log-derived)points · kriging
  • Mineral trapping (co2_reactivity)lithology lookup
  • Pressure managementhydrogeo lookup
  • Formation water salinitypoints · interp.
02 Evidence Layers

Subsurface data is sparse, heterogeneous, and never sufficient. The system handles that.

CCS site characterization draws from petroleum legacy (well logs, 2D/3D seismic, core analysis) and new-purpose datasets (formation pressure surveys, caprock integrity testing, geomechanical models, aquifer pressure monitoring). The PFA importer handles each format, projects into a chosen CRS, and tracks provenance. Missing data is surfaced honestly — the confidence surface reveals gaps rather than hiding them.

0.1 800 mD
point · petrophysical
Porosity & Permeability

Core-plug and well-log-derived porosity and permeability at storage formation depth. Scored with monotonic-increasing function — higher permeability means higher injectivity potential.

LASCSVSHP
20 m50 m 100 m150 m caprock thickness · metres
raster · stratigraphic
Caprock Thickness

Isopach of the primary seal formation from seismic interpretation. Thicker caprock = better containment. Scored with monotonic-increasing function with a minimum-thickness cutoff below which the score is zero.

GeoTIFFZMAP
line · structural risk
Fault Traces & Seal Risk

Faults that breach the caprock are leakage pathways. Scored with monotonic-decreasing function — closer to fault = lower containment. The Structure Library's containment_integrity_class adds kinematic context.

SHPGeoJSON
legacy well density · KDE
point · containment risk
Legacy Well Penetrations

Every well that penetrates the caprock is a potential leakage conduit. Abandoned wells with unknown cement condition are the highest risk. Scored with monotonic-decreasing: higher well density = worse containment.

CSVSHP
200 m150 m 100 m50 m
raster · stratigraphic
Formation Thickness

Isopach of the storage formation from well tops and seismic mapping. Combined with porosity to estimate total accessible pore volume for COâ‚‚ storage capacity computation.

GeoTIFFZMAP
SED-CL-SSQ SED-CL-SHL SED-CB-LST
polygon · compositional
Reservoir Lithology

Polygon layer with lith_code attributes. Auto-scores from the Lithology Library using co2_storage_class, co2_seal_class, and co2_reactivity_class for the three CCS contexts.

SHPGeoJSON
exclusion zone baseline seismicity · Mw
point · geomechanical
Baseline Seismicity

Pre-injection seismicity catalog for induced-seismicity risk baseline. Areas with existing seismicity on critically-stressed faults near the injection zone score lower for injection safety.

CSVQuakeML
A B C D E Qtz Fsp Clay Carb
point · geochemical
Mineralogy (XRD)

Whole-rock X-ray diffraction from core samples. Carbonate and feldspar content drives mineral trapping (co2_reactivity_class). Clay content degrades injectivity. Used for both capacity and injectivity scoring.

CSV
03 Scoring Pipeline

From well logs and seismic picks to a calibrated storage suitability surface.

The same three-stage pipeline as other PFA domains: score evidence at its native geometry, propagate through a spatial model, combine across elements. The CCS-specific insight is that some evidence scores in the reversed direction — legacy well density, fault proximity, and baseline seismicity are all monotonic-decreasing: more is worse.

STAGE 01
Evidence scoring

Continuous data (porosity, thickness, pressure) → configurable scoring functions. Categorical polygons (lithology, structure, hydrogeology) → auto-populated from the three CCS scoring contexts across two attribute libraries: co2_storage_class + co2_seal_class + co2_reactivity_class from the Lithology Library (81 entries) and containment_integrity_class + injection_safety_class + storage_volume_class from the Structure Library (64 entries). The Hydrogeology Library adds four more CCS contexts. All mappings editable, all overrides tracked per-scenario.

Reversed scoring — Legacy well density is scored with a monotonic-decreasing function: higher density = lower containment suitability. The system detects reversed-direction scoring and inverts the score colormap accordingly, so red always means "unfavorable" on the map.
STAGE 02
Spatial influence

Point evidence propagated via Gaussian decay, IDW, or kriging. Anisotropy first-class — CCS formations frequently have directional permeability controlled by depositional or structural fabric. Polygon layers center-point rasterized. Background value: agnostic 0.5 by default, but CCS projects often justify pessimistic 0.0 for containment — "absence of evidence on seal integrity is not evidence of good seal."

CCS-specific background — For the Containment element, the recommended background is pessimistic (0.0). Unexplored areas should not be assumed to have adequate seal. This inverts the geothermal convention and must be set deliberately.
STAGE 03
Multi-criteria combination

Per-element: weighted geometric mean across proxies. Across elements: the weighted geometric mean is the CCS default because it is non-compensatory — a site cannot trade containment for capacity — but less punishing than pure multiplication when data are sparse. The minimum operator is a conservative alternative for regulatory submissions where every element must independently exceed a threshold.

For CCS — Containment receives the highest element weight and the strictest threshold. The system supports minimum-with-threshold: any cell where the Containment score falls below a user-specified cutoff (e.g., 0.3) is forced to zero regardless of other element scores.
04 Composite Suitability

The regulator needs one map. Build it from three.

CCRS — Composite Storage Suitability Surface
SITE A CCRS = 0.78 SITE B CCRS = 0.54 FAULT EXCLUSION 0.00.25 0.500.75 1.0 CCRS storage suitability
  • GEOMETRIC MEAN
    P = ∏ pᵢwᵢ
    CCS default. Non-compensatory weighted AND. A site with excellent injectivity cannot compensate for poor containment. Weights control relative influence: containment typically weighted highest (0.40–0.50).
  • MINIMUM
    P = min(p₁, p₂, … pₙ)
    The conservative regulatory choice. Composite equals the weakest element. Particularly appropriate for Class VI permit submissions where every element must independently demonstrate adequacy.
  • MIN-WITH-THRESHOLD
    P = min(…) if all pᵢ ≥ τ, else 0
    Extension: any element below a hard cutoff τ forces the cell to zero. Containment cutoff = 0.3 is recommended — sites with marginal seal should not appear on a suitability map regardless of other factors.
  • WEIGHTS OF EVIDENCE
    log(P/1−P) = Σ Wᵢ⁺
    Bayesian posterior calibrated against known successful storage analogs (Sleipner, Quest, Decatur). Requires a training dataset of confirmed storage sites and non-sites. Valuable for mature basins.
CCS recommendation Default to weighted geometric mean with Containment at ≥ 0.40 weight. For regulatory submissions, switch to minimum-with-threshold (τ = 0.3 on Containment). Always run weight-perturbation sensitivity — if rank order flips with ±15% weight shift, the discrimination is too weak for site selection.
05 Confidence & Uncertainty

Regulators ask: "How do you know?" The confidence surface answers.

A Class VI permit application requires demonstration that characterization data adequately constrains the subsurface model. The PFA system generates a per-element confidence surface via KDE, then combines them into a composite confidence map. Low-confidence zones become targets for additional characterization wells — the system tells you where to invest in more data, not just where to inject.

Suitability
viridis · [0–1]
Confidence (KDE)
grayscale · well density
Confidence-Weighted
suitability × confidence
Low-confidence zones visually fade via alpha blending. For CCS, low-confidence cells directly identify where additional characterization wells are needed before a Class VI permit can be defensibly submitted.
  • KDE confidenceGaussian kernel with Sheather–Jones bandwidth, domain-bounded by the project AOI polygon. Bandwidth decoupled from interpolation decay. Each evidence type contributes independently to the confidence of its parent element.
  • Containment-specific thresholdThe system flags cells where Containment confidence is below a user-specified minimum (e.g., 0.4). These are "data gap" zones — the suitability score may be high, but it is unreliable because characterization data is insufficient to confirm seal.
  • Weight-perturbation ensembleMonte Carlo mode: perturb weights ±15% across N realizations. If a site's rank flips between top-5 and bottom-half, the discrimination is too weak. The system reports rank-stability per cell.
  • Regulatory provenanceEvery parameter — kernel, bandwidth, decay, background, weight, threshold — serialized to the H2 project database as a JSON provenance blob. The audit report exports to DOCX or Markdown for permit documentation.
06 Case Study

The Illinois Basin — the proving ground for onshore CCS.

The ADM Decatur project injected over one million tonnes of CO₂ into the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone, sealed by the Eau Claire Shale, with comprehensive monitoring confirming containment. The Illinois Basin is the best-characterized onshore CCS target in North America: dense well control, 2D/3D seismic, core data, and a complete stratigraphic framework. The PFA application loads these evidence layers natively and can reproduce — and extend — the published suitability analysis.

Finley, R.J. et al., 2014.
An assessment of geological carbon
sequestration options in the Illinois Basin.
U.S. DOE MGSC Partnership.
Mt. Simon Sandstone injection & monitoring.
Illinois State Geological Survey · Reviewed
ADM DECATUR CCRS 0.82 · 1 Mt injected VERMILION CO. CCRS 0.61 · prospective ILLINOIS INDIANA MISSOURI KENTUCKY ILLINOIS BASIN · MT. SIMON CCRS EPSG:32616 · combination=WGM · background=0.0 (containment) N 0 50 100 km 0.0 1.0 suitability
Composite storage suitability surface for the Illinois Basin Mt. Simon Sandstone. ADM Decatur site (1 Mt CO₂ injected, monitoring confirmed containment) occupies the highest-scoring zone. Illustrative — not registered to source data.
Scenario Manifest · 12 Layers · 3 Elements
Injectivityw = 0.30
Core permeability (DST)0.35
Porosity (log-derived)0.30
Formation pressure (MDT)0.20
Lithology (co2_storage)0.15
Containmentw = 0.45
Eau Claire thickness0.35
Caprock lithology (co2_seal)0.25
Fault proximity (inverted)0.25
Legacy well density (inverted)0.15
Capacityw = 0.25
Mt. Simon thickness0.40
Effective porosity grid0.35
Mineral trapping (co2_react.)0.25
Combination Per-element: weighted geometric mean. Across elements: weighted geometric mean (Containment w=0.45, Injectivity w=0.30, Capacity w=0.25). Background: pessimistic (0.0) for Containment; agnostic (0.5) for others. The Decatur site scored highest consistently across 200 weight-perturbation runs (±15%).
07 Technical Specifications

Desktop. Air-gapped if needed. Your subsurface model stays yours.

CCS characterization data is often commercially sensitive or subject to pre-competitive agreements. The application is fully offline-capable with an embedded spatial database — no cloud upload, no third-party dependency. Project files can be version-controlled and submitted alongside a Class VI permit application as auditable records.

Platform
Java 21 · JavaFX 25 · Native desktop: Windows, macOS, Linux. Single-file installer. No browser, no cloud.
Spatial Engine
GeoTools 34.2 · GridCoverage2D raster model · EPSG database (6,000+ CRS) · on-the-fly reprojection.
Database
H2 2.x + H2GIS embedded · single-file .pfa project. 317 attribute library entries across Lithology (81), Structure (64), Alteration (52), Hydrogeology (46), and GDE (74) tables — 49 scoring contexts across 4 domains.
CCS Scoring
10 CCS-specific scoring contexts across three libraries: co2_storage_class, co2_seal_class, co2_reactivity_class (Lithology) · containment_integrity_class, injection_safety_class, storage_volume_class (Structure) · co2_storage_capacity_class, co2_injectivity_class, caprock_quality_class, pressure_management_class (Hydrogeology).
Input Formats
Vector — Shapefile, GeoJSON, KML · Raster — GeoTIFF, ZMAP+, ASCII Grid, Surfer · Well — LAS 2.0/3.0, CSV · Tabular — CSV, TSV, Excel.
Combination
Weighted geometric mean · multiplication · minimum · minimum-with-threshold · OWA · weights-of-evidence. Sensitivity: Monte Carlo weight perturbation with rank-stability report.
Confidence
KDE (Sheather–Jones bandwidth, Silverman fallback). Domain-bounded. Kriging variance alternative. Composite confidence: weighted mean or minimum.
Audit Trail
Every scenario serialized to project database. Full provenance: scoring functions, decay parameters, weights, backgrounds, thresholds. Exportable as DOCX or Markdown for permit documentation.
Accessibility
WCAG 2.1 AA contrast. Viridis default ramp (color-blind-safe). Text labels on all color-coded indicators. Full keyboard navigation.
08 Get In Touch

Built for permanent sequestration.
Not adapted from petroleum risk.

We are working with CCS operators, Class VI permit applicants, and DOE-funded research partnerships. If you are characterizing a saline aquifer, evaluating a depleted reservoir, or building a regional storage atlas — we should talk.

Request a demo Download data sheet
Class VI permit support · DOE partnership ready